Australia’s car theft boom has turned professional and your driveway is now the showroom.

You’d think forking out six figures on a new car might buy you some peace of mind. Instead, in Australia in 2026, it buys you a spot on someone’s shopping list.

The best car to buy to have your own version of Gone in 60 Seconds is a Toyota LandCruiser. In Victoria alone, about two and a half a day disappear. That’s up 201 per cent on the year before.

If you live in Maribyrnong, there’s a man in your street now with a laptop and a $300 OBD plug who can clone your key in 90 seconds and have the thing in a shipping container before you have finished dinner. Recovery rate? Zilch. Your LandCruiser is halfway to Dubai before the police file the report.

Victoria take the title

Look, the race to the grand theft auto finals used to be tough.

Up to 2023, Queensland held the top spot in raw police-recorded thefts (20,153 vs Victoria’s 18,259), but just like the Lions took Victorian teams out of the AFL premiership, the Garden State has surged past the banana benders.

The shift is almost entirely driven by key-cloning technology hitting Victoria harder than anywhere else.

Now it’s not even close.

Between 2018 and 2023, Victorians were stealing 42 per cent more cars than NSW.

Come 2025, in a result for the ages, the gum suckers did a 123 per cent better job.

The Insurance Council of Australia awarded Victoria “the country’s car crime leader”. Every other state failed miserably. But Victoria’s claims increased in 2025 – up 59 per cent to 12,000 claims costing $223m.

Same ute, different odds

OK. If you’re just looking for a podium without the expense of a first place, here’s the form guide.

One in every 211 HiLuxes in Victoria was pinched last year.

Toyota HiLux


Toyota HiLux
The identical ute with a different name, the Ford Ranger? Only one in 807 went for a late-night drive. Same ute buyer, same driveway, wildly different odds. If you want to keep your ute, buy Ford.

Prestige targets

Of course, the BMW X5 leads the European theft count, followed by the Land Rover Discovery and a combined 119 Audis across the Q5, Q7, A4 and Q3.

The BMW X5


The BMW X5
The method is either a relay attack on your keyless fob – amplified through the front wall while you sleep – or the more direct approach: break into the house, take the keys off the hall table, drive away.

This is now routine.

The robbers don’t operate in their own postcodes. They drive to yours. The nicer the suburb, the wider the driveway, the more convenient the keyless entry – the better the shopping.

In the beachside Sydney suburb of Glamarama where economic pressures have seen Selleys Spakfilla replace the Newtox Botox in keeping expressions on vacation and faces even more plastic, car crooks have been doing whole streets at a time.

Because it’s Sydney, they come with the mandatory tatts, masks and, of course, large crowbars. A strong deterrent to investment bankers playing hero.

The enthusiast tax

Then there’s the enthusiast tax. This is where theft becomes a parts business.

The Subaru WRX is the star. With just over 28,000 on the road, more than 200 were stolen in nine months. That’s roughly one in 139. The Toyota 86 isn’t far behind.

These cars aren’t being exported. They’re being dismantled.

Subaru WRX


Subaru WRX
Turbochargers, brakes, panels, interiors – all worth more individually than the car is as a whole. The aftermarket doesn’t ask too many questions. Private equity is probably looking at the business model now.

In a country (i.e. this one) where parts are about 300 per cent higher than they should be and normal delivery time is two weeks, demand and margins are high and the chances of getting lumbered are low.

Survival guide

Our advice is either to buy a shitbox or an EV (the same thing), lock your car, lock your keys in a Faraday pouch, bolt an OBD port lock under the dashboard and hide your head under the pillow. Welcome to car ownership in 2026.

BMW insights

Our lively BMW discussions including insights into would-be tomato grower, BMW CEO Vikram Pawah, have started an email tsunami.

Basically, your letters fall into two categories: certain models, particularly older Beemers, are reliability landmines. Like many of us, the tech does age badly.

Commentators highlight BMWs as “rolling networks” of modules, sensors and software that are superb new but a liability in middle age, with failing electronics, infotainment glitches and expensive adaptive suspension/safety tech.

This supports a “the ultimate driving machine becomes the ultimate warning light Christmas tree” angle.

And then there’s depreciation. Analysis points to high MSRPs, lease-heavy sales and high insurance/repair costs driving brutal depreciation once the warranty ends.

BMW has engineered a three-to-five-year love affair followed by a long, expensive divorce for the second owner.

Worth remembering

As the wonderful machineswithsouls.com quaintly puts it:

“Remember, long after the lust of a new car has faded, you’ll be left with the monthly payments. Whether those payments are a little or a lot, it’s you who must live with the lump of metal attached to them” ... if it hasn’t been stolen by then.