These are the car brands most likely to die in the global industry crisis

The global car industry is in more trouble than an exhaust supplier at an EV trade show.

The headwinds are ugly: global light vehicle production is falling fast; profitability is under more pressure than a sauso on a Bunnings hotplate at 12.05 on a Saturday and the Trumpster's tariffs plus China price wars are smashing margins, especially in Europe.

At the same time a lot of suppliers that make the parts for EVs and for real cars are already drowning.

Here are the car makers more likely to cut brands or merge.

• Nissan (corporate stress, not brand extinction) Operating profit has repeatedly collapsed, at one point down 99 per cent year-on-year, leaving the company barely in the black with minimal cash on hand. Analysts and even insiders have framed its situation in terms of "12–14 months to survive" absent decisive action, and there have been on again/off again merger or rescue talks with Honda. I'd see this as high restructuring/asset sale risk, but extremely low probability that the Nissan badge actually disappears; Japanese state/keiretsu and alliance politics make a complete failure unlikely.

• Stellantis sub brands (brand kill rather than group failure) Stellantis (a name nearly as ugly as Urus) and maker Alfa, Maserati, Jeep, Dodge and Lancia has profits and sales under pressure, with Western European sales falling and profit misses in 2025. Fiat, Chrysler, DS and Abarth are the weakest performers dragging group profitability down and with delayed or confused EV plans. The rational outcome is consolidation: you could easily see one or more of Chrysler (as a stand-alone brand), DS or Abarth effectively wound up.

• JLR / Jaguar (brand shrink or sale risk) JLR has been wrestling with high debt at parent Tata Motors and big capex burdens; more than $6bn of debt falling due within 18 months with very high cash burn rates.

Land Rover/Range Rover is strategically valuable, but Jaguar as a passenger car badge is the weak link; the plausible path here is Jaguar's range being radically shrunk, rebadged EV platforms, or the brand being repositioned rather than outright liquidation.

• Polestar and Lucid (true bankruptcy candidates) Pure play EV names like Polestar and Lucid have seen market value collapse, missed payments to suppliers and workforce cuts, with some suppliers reportedly halting shipments over overdue invoices.

Death and brand extinction are credible scenarios if capital markets stay tight and Chinese EV competition intensifies.

• Aston Martin Aston Martin is often described as "financially troubled" and is still heavily leveraged as it leans into ultra-expensive specials (Valhalla etc.) to repair the balance sheet.

Big names that are struggling but unlikely to vanish

• German premium: Mercedes, Porsche, VW Group Porsche's operating profit at one point crashed 99 per cent year-on-year to about $67m, with some estimates briefly showing a $1.7bn operating loss as EV investments, tariffs and China slowdown hit simultaneously. Mercedes has seen double-digit volume declines in key markets and shrinking margins, and VW has closed plants and missed profit targets in Europe. But these are politically and systemically important; think restructuring, plant closures and model line culls rather than insolvency.

• US majors: Ford, GM Both are flagging lower production and modest probabilities of "financial distress" in quantitative models, but current estimated distress odds for Ford sit in the low single digits over 24 months. Recent history (2009) plus union and government dynamics make another run at Chapter 11 possible in a severe shock, but it's still a tail risk, not central case.

• Toyota and the strongest Asian incumbents Toyota's own risk analytics show odds of financial distress under 5 per cent over two years despite sector stress. The Korean majors and most Chinese state-backed groups sit in a similar "under pressure but deeply supported" bucket.

Where the real damage likely lands: suppliers and dealers

• A significant share of medium suppliers is moving into high-risk territory: recent failures like lighting and interiors maker, Marelli and others underline that this is already happening.

• Outsized damage will be to: ICE-centric component makers (exhausts, fuel systems); small regional suppliers in Europe and North America; and other "future tech" plays that never find scale.

• What it means for you: parts scarcity, service coverage and used value hit usually come from supplier and dealer retrenchment rather than the parent company literally going bust.

If you're buying a new car

• Treat most EV start-ups and micro luxury badges as true risk: fine as toys or halo cars, not as conservative transport.

• Watch Nissan and the weak Stellantis badges (Fiat, Chrysler, DS, Abarth) for restructuring signals but assume some form of continuity in service/parts via the group even if the badge is killed.

• Realise that with German and other brands your parts are going to take two weeks or more to come from Singapore, Malaysia or some other weirdo location.

New cars you should buy

The authoritative Kelly Blue Book has just published its best cars of 2026. No surprises.

Honda takes just about everything. Best compact: the Civic. Best Hatchback: the Civic. Best mid-size: the Accord.

Australia's new sport: car nicking

Australians are pinching cars like it's 1994 again – except now it's not a screwdriver and a prayer, it's tech. The Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded 65,603 victims of motor vehicle theft in 2024 – about one every eight minutes, nationwide.

Victoria is doing a heroic amount of heavy lifting in that tally. The theft spike has been widely linked to cheap, accessible gadgets and methods (OBD reprogramming, key-signal mimicry, trackers like AirTags, the whole little bastard's toolkit).

But here's the twist: a bunch of them come back.

There's a whole category of "borrow-and-return" theft that's basically: nick a car at stupid-o'clock, do a lap of the fast-food drive-through, maybe film a few doughnuts for TikTok content, then dump it somewhere vaguely near where they found it. (It's the ugliest subscription model: Hertz, but with more crime.)

Freedom 250: IndyCar hits the National Mall

This is not satire – President Trumpster signed an executive order for an IndyCar street race in Washington, DC as part of the US 250th birthday. It's on the 21-23 August 2026, near the National Mall, free entry for much of the event, broadcast on Fox, and (inevitably) "historic and cool." If you're wondering about logistics, traffic, funding, and whether DC needed more reasons to be gridlocked: yes. Same.

What happened last Sunday?

Last Sunday at Sydney Motor Sport tip and raceway we confirmed your choice of this journal as the car punters' bible. The Herring family not only dominated the MX-5 Cup they did the same in the one-hour production race between Mazda races.

If you'd followed our advice and put an each way bet on Canberra's Sarah Medley, you'd be in the money. A very nice second behind the dominator. Special mention to the best dressed car, the not so fat controller Rod Tippet's blue Mazda. Your Raceaway Tracktime/Weekend Australian MX-5 was consistent.