A new market report from automotive intelligence platform AutoGrab says that in just three weeks, used EV listings fell 33 per cent nationally from 3565 to 2387, while daily sales rose from 70 to 124.
Pickles is seeing the same thing from another angle. It says EV search activity on its platform is up 111 per cent over that time frame, watchlist activity is up 98 per cent and BYD search interest has leapt 123 per cent to an all-time high. That is not just casual tyre-kicking. That is shoppers circling the catalogue with a pencil.
For you in a real car doing 15,000km a year, AutoGrab says that's an extra $1800 a year. If you drive a diesel for work and do 30,000km, the hit is closer to $5000. That's on top of the 52c per litre you are already coughing up in fuel excise and GST. In other words, the good folks in Iran have done what a decade of government sermons and EV marketing didn't: it has made us seriously reconsider what we drive.
The AutoGrab report is pretty clear: this is not just tyre-kickers wandering past the yard. Dealer inquiry has lifted, the market response has been fast, and the big surprise is retained values improving – even in parts of the used EV market where everyone had been assuming resale values would stay crook. But our word of caution: older EVs still have a trust problem once the warranty disappears – mainly around battery life and replacement cost.
So yes, the wartime rush to EVs appears real.
Buy new if you want a quiet life
Buy new if: - You want the full battery warranty term; - You do big kilometres; - You can charge at home; - You plan to keep it for years rather than flip it;
The safest EV ownership is still boring ownership. Buy it, charge it at home, run it for a long time, don't obsess over resale every five minutes.
The used EV sweet spot
Used is where the story gets interesting, but only if buyers are disciplined.
I'd say the sweet spot is probably 2022 to 2024 used EVs. The report shows 2022 cars getting some support as buyers move to more affordable alternatives, while 2023s look like a relatively stable middle ground. 2022–24 is a reasonable value zone without taking on quite as much battery-age risk as the earliest stuff.
Questions to ask before you buy
If you're buying a used EV, ask these questions first: - How much battery warranty is left in years and kilometres? - What is the minimum battery capacity the warranty guarantees? - Can the seller provide a battery health report? - Has the car been DC fast charged constantly, or mostly AC/home charged? - What is the real-world range now, not the brochure range? - What does a replacement battery cost locally? - Are refurbished packs available in Australia? - What happens if one module fails rather than the whole pack?
What war won't fix
But before everyone starts hugging a charging cable, it is worth saying what this trend does not fix.
It does not fix range anxiety. It does not fix the misery of relying on public chargers if you live in a flat or park on the street. It does not fix the fact that some buyers still do not fully trust what happens to battery performance over the long haul. And it certainly does not fix the fear of a massive battery replacement bill once the warranty runs out.
The bill nobody wants to meet
That last point remains the big one. Most EV battery warranties run for eight years, sometimes 10, generally with kilometre caps around 160,000km and a capacity threshold of roughly 60 to 70 per cent. That sounds comforting until you start looking at older used EVs and ask the question nobody in the showroom wants to answer cheerfully: fine, and then what?
Replacement batteries cost from $10k up to $70k in the case of a Porker Taycan, installed. Buy a refurbished Infinitev one instead. It's 40 to 60 per cent cheaper and usually with a better warranty than the manufacturers.
Trust is the real issue
And just as buyers start persuading themselves that battery worries are overdone, along comes a reminder from Europe. Volkswagen is recalling about 100,000 EVs worldwide across its ID and Cupra ranges over high-voltage battery issues that in rare cases could lead to fires.
No reported injuries, thankfully, but it is another useful reminder that battery confidence is not some fringe concern dreamt up by blokes in diesel dual-cabs. It is real, and it still matters.
Which brings us neatly back to BMW, a brand that has featured here before for all the wrong reasons.
The broader problem for carmakers is not just whether EVs can be sold when petrol spikes. It is whether buyers trust them – and trust the companies behind them – when something goes wrong. That question gets sharper, not softer, once warranties start running down. More next week.
Suzuka will tell us plenty
This weekend it's Suzuka. It's an unforgiving, high-speed, and technical circuit that demands precision and gives true, brave drivers the advantage. If the new rules can produce proper, convincing racing there, the defenders of the formula will feel stronger. If Suzuka becomes another battery-management demonstration with staged-feeling overtakes and odd corner behaviour, the critics will get louder.
The early betting shape tells you how much things have already shifted. Russell is favourite. Antonelli is right there. Ferrari's pair are close enough to believe. Mad Max, for once, is not being discussed as though the thing is already his.
Our bets are: Gorgeous George, Anto, Chuck, Hamo, OJ, Mad Max and the Leaping Lando.
The future is here – and it's messy
The new Formula One is not dead. It's not broken beyond repair. The spectacle is strong. The racing is debatable. The politics are heating up. Audi has done its first bit of bloodletting. McLaren is trying to understand its own machinery. Mercedes is serene. Ferrari is dangerous. Verstappen is furious. Aston is vibrating. BMW is finding the EV transition dearer than the dream. In other words, motorsport and the motor industry are both learning the same lesson: the future still looks impressive. It is just turning out to be a lot messier, pricier and more human than the brochures said.
Meanwhile, back on earth
Elsewhere, Supercars' hunt for a new street race continues, with the old Port Kembla motorcycle track now a favourite after Newcastle NIMBYs kiboshed the race there. Regional politicians can smell the hotel bookings already. And if you prefer your motoring with more linen shirts and less tyre smoke, the South Yarra by The Sea Concours returns on July 18 at the village previously known as Noosa. It celebrates 60 years since Sir Jack Brabham won the world title in a car bearing his own name. Lots of petrol. Not much battery therapy.