Listen. Can we all take a cold shower? Seriously.
Autonomous cars, driverless cars, self-driving cars, robotic cars, cars where you sit there having a tinny and a smoke while the metal navigates the freeway, busy city roads and parks are of the same magnitude of delusion as Y2K, killer bees, the moon landing and tax cuts from politicians.
Think about it this way. Aviation is a trillion-dollar industry and that doesn’t include defence and space exploration. It has the highest standards of engineering in the world outside medical research. Yet after 234 years and trillions of dollars the aviation industry hasn’t developed an autopilot that you can leave alone. In October 2008, QF72 Captain Kevin Sullivan was cruising along at 37,000 feet on a trip from Singapore to Perth when the Airbus A330-300’s autopilot decided to disconnect and the plane dropped nearly 213 metres and 119 people on board were injured. Ask any commercial pilot, autopilot problems are a weekly event.
Some commentators blame pilot inattention and sometimes that’s right. But in many cases, including the QF72 episode, the pilot was right on top of things; the problem was the technology. The bottom line is every now and then the autopilot doesn’t work.
Now if the aviation industry can’t make an autonomous plane, would you trust our friends in the auto industry to make an autonomous car you’d feel safe putting your kids in?
For a start, last year automakers recalled 53.2 million cars in the US alone for mechanical and technological problems. Airbag manufacturer, Takata, pleaded guilty to a felony charge as part of a $US1 billion deal after its airbags had a habit of exploding shooting shrapnel into happy passengers.
Then there’s the matter of trust. So far VW, Audi, Fiat Chrysler, Renault, Mercedes-Benz, Honda, Mazda and Mitsubishi have been caught up in the dieselgate scandal.
Before you say, “well, the mining industry has driverless trucks”, be aware the big miners don’t let them loose on the Great Northern Highway or send them on a beer run to the Karratha International Hotel (which I rate as five star because it has a top pool, Wi-Fi, laundry service and al fresco dining) and they have remote drivers keeping eagle eyes on them.
As Consumer Reports said earlier this year: “Volkswagen lied to us. Its 11 million ‘clean diesel’ cars have been polluting the air at up to 40 times the federal standard for years. Worse: It installed technology to hide the problem from emissions tests.”
I think you should read any reports on driverless cars as meaning “maybe we’ll make them work in 20 years or maybe we won’t”.
However, I am grudgingly prepared electric cars might catch on given this is their second coming. They were first invented 185 years ago. But I don’t buy the green argument. Electric cars just shift the environmental damage around, and don’t ask about resale prices.
In more bad news, last month the Bank of England warned of a possible massive and even bigger than massive credit crunch because carmakers are financing their own cars and increasingly they’re using a rental scheme called Personal Contract Purchase plans. Basically, you rent the car for three or four years then either return it or buy it for a specified price. The Conversation UK compares the PCP crunch to the US mortgage crunch. Last year in Britain alone, $US7.1bn of auto loan securities were sliced and diced up and packaged into asset-backed securities. Most new car buyers are not told about other less profitable and less commission-friendly options.
In equally bad news, Hagerty, the leading classic car insurer, has just released its latest classic vehicle rating and two-thirds of the vehicles in the Top 25 ranking are trucks or SUVs, and nearly 90 per cent of them are valued at $20,000 or less.
“We’re seeing the most interest in the entry-level market, and several factors play into that. Rare and desirable cars like Ferrari 275s, Mercedes-Benz 300SLs, and air-cooled Porsche 911s saw huge increases in value over the last five years, but now that values aren’t rising like they were, interest has started to wane. Most buyers aren’t worried about losing $2000 on a $20,000 purchase, but $20,000 on a $200,000 car? That’s a different story.
And there are some crook-looking pieces of metal at the top. The 1973-1987 Chev C/K Pickup, the 1945-1968 Dodge Power Wagon and the 1976-1986 Jeep. Fortunately there are some sane Americans.
Also on the list are the Pontiac Firebird, the Toyota Supra (very good buying in Australia) and the 2000-03 Honda S2000. You’ll pay the same here (around $40,000) for a Concours quality Honda S2000. Don’t pay more than $20,000 for a good one. But I think they are a good bet. Then again, I was the one that knocked back a Ford XY GT at $65,000. Shannons sold it last month for $210,000.
OK. There’s been a lot of complaints recently about this column sinking to new lows and pandering to the lowest common denominator. And they’re right. But the editor (yes, the same one who likes motorbikes) has told me to go more upmarket. So, on Sunday I’ll see you at the Mossgreen Melbourne contemporary art auction. I’ll be bidding on Jitish Kallat’s Collidonthus, which is the skeletal frame of a car made of artificial mixed media. It represents Jit’s concern about the role of the car as a constant and animate force in the urban streets of India. (You don’t seriously think I know what I am talking about, do you?) Yours for a Ford XY GT.
